Topic: You have a choice of three global scenarios for the year 2020 . Choose your scenario. 2020 Global Scenarios
The following scenarios are provided as attachments to this topic:
1. Business as Usual assumes that the global dynamics of change continue without great surprises or much change in energy
sources and consumption patterns other than those that might be expected as a result of the change dynamics and trends
already in place.
2. Environmental Backlash assumes that the international environmental movement becomes much more organized; some groups
lobby for legal actions and new regulations and sue for action in the courts, while others become violent and attack fossil
3. Political Turmoil assumes increasing conflicts and wars, with several countries collapsing into failed states, leading to
increasing migrations and political instabilities around the world.
For this assignment, take on three roles in succession: Director of the DNI’s Open Source Center (D/OSC); Director of the
National Clandestine Service (D/NCS); and Director, NSA (DIRNSA).
In each role, how would you plan for use of your organization’s assets for collection? (DIRNSA would focus only on
communication intelligent (COMINT), D/NCS on human intelligent (HUMINT), and D/OSC on open source collection.)
Consider and address these factors in each role, for the world described in your chosen scenario:
• What problems or issues are you going to address with your collection?
• What are your specific targets (e.g., published or internet sources, types of agents, communications links)? Be as specific
as possible, and give examples of your targets.
• How does your operational environment in the world of your scenario differ from that today? How do you propose to change
your collection methods to deal with it (e.g., tradecraft). Take into account not only the scenario world, but also the
advances in technology, counterintelligence methods, etc., that can be expected over the next ten years.
Your resulting paper should have three major sections (open source, HUMINT, COMINT). Each section should be about two pages
single-spaced, that cover the three factors described above. Be concise; longer papers do not fare better (they fare worse if
they contain irrelevant material). As with most intelligence writing, shorter is better.